AGP Executive Report

Oil & Gas Liberalization: Venezuela has started circulating draft regulations tied to its newly approved hydrocarbons law, spelling out technical, operational, fiscal and oversight rules for private firms in refining, upgrading and crude trading—and it also repeals the 1943 oil law and long-running 1969 rules, while PDVSA is sharing proposed contract templates to pull in foreign partners. Cuba Escalation Watch: The U.S. indicted former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 shootdown of two “Brothers to the Rescue” planes, with prosecutors signaling he could be brought to Miami—an escalation that’s already fueling talk of a wider pressure campaign as Cuba warns of “bloodbath” scenarios. Regional Politics & Pressure: U.S. rhetoric around Cuba is being framed by critics as a “regime change” push, with parallels drawn to Venezuela’s earlier crackdown and military action. Industry & People: In Venezuela, officials also kept the spotlight on local production and STEM pipelines, including Mérida’s business mobilizations and the second phase of the Nanotechnology Olympics.

Cuba Pressure Escalates: The U.S. Justice Department formally indicted former Cuban President Raúl Castro (94) and five others over the 1996 shootdown of two civilian planes operated by Brothers to the Rescue, charging conspiracy to kill U.S. nationals, aircraft destruction, and murder counts—an escalation that Cuba calls “cruel and ruthless aggression” and that could further inflame already high invasion fears. Rubio’s “New Path” Messaging: Hours before the indictment, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio released a Spanish video urging Cubans to replace the ruling elite, targeting GAESA and tying the pitch to a proposed $100 million food-and-medicine push. Venezuela Spillover: The week’s Cuba moves land amid broader U.S. pressure tactics in the region, including the ongoing legal crackdown on Maduro allies—most recently Alex Saab’s Miami money-laundering case tied to CLAP food contracts. U.S. Domestic Politics: In Kentucky, Trump-backed challenger Ed Gallrein defeated Rep. Thomas Massie in a loyalty test for Republicans, underscoring how foreign-policy dissent is being punished at home.

National Pilgrimage Push: Venezuela’s acting president Delcy Rodríguez kicked off the second phase of the “Venezuela without Sanctions and in Peace” pilgrimage in Bolívar and Zulia, urging production in agro-industry and industry while calling for an end to unilateral coercive measures. Cabello on the Ground: Diosdado Cabello toured local firms in Zulia—highlighting boat maintenance at Petrol Grava Service and steel work at a recycled-cabillas plant—framing them as proof private enterprise is “not stopping” despite sanctions. Cuba Pressure Spillover: The week’s regional backdrop stays tense: Sherritt warns of looming operational, financial and legal trouble tied to expanded U.S. Cuba sanctions, while Havana faces fuel collapse and blackout-linked daily strain. U.S.-Cuba Aid Talks: Washington says it held talks on a $100 million humanitarian offer, but Cuba’s leadership continues to reject the political framing. Energy & Security Noise: Reports of drone-related escalation around Cuba and broader Iran-linked shipping stress keep markets and policymakers on edge.

National Economic Control: In Cabimas, Zulia, Diosdado Cabello told sector leaders the government is “in order” and will coordinate all economic, social and political areas to unlock funding, with agricultural production prioritized if income is secured—plus a focus on blue crab, which he said cannot be exported. Sanctions Pressure: From Bolívar state, Delcy Rodríguez kicked off the second phase of the National Pilgrimage for “a Venezuela without sanctions and in peace,” urging national unity and telling the U.S. it won’t stop until sanctions and the blockade end. Diplomatic Outreach: Venezuela marked the 45th anniversary of ties with Equatorial Guinea, highlighting cooperation in energy, agriculture, transport, education, culture and tourism; and Haiti’s Flag Day was observed in Caracas with a floral offering at Simón Bolívar’s remains. Energy/Industry Signals: Rodríguez also framed the “productive heart” push as a route through agro-industry and industry—while separate coverage keeps attention on Venezuela-linked sanctions and legal cases abroad, including the Alex Saab fallout. Public Works: Authorities distributed 45 compactor trucks across 11 states to boost waste collection and support the 2026 rain-plan sanitation push.

Cuba Pressure Escalates: U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced fresh sanctions on 11 Cuban officials and three security/intelligence entities, freezing any U.S.-linked assets and warning more designations are coming. Humanitarian Fallout: A Mexico-Uruguay aid ship docked in Havana with hygiene items plus 1,700 tons of grains and powdered milk as Cuba’s energy and food squeeze deepens. Venezuela Court Shock: In Miami, Alex Saab—long tied to Maduro-era food contracts—appeared on money-laundering charges tied to alleged bribes and fake import paperwork under CLAP. Sanctions Spillover: The Saab case lands as Venezuela’s food sector shows resilience at retail: ANSA says 2026 domestic consumption is up 31% and 98% of supermarket items carry “Hecho en Venezuela.” Local Innovation & Industry Push: IVIC is building low-cost sensor networks for climate/pollution monitoring, while Fedeindustria Expo 2026 brings 110+ companies to Caracas (May 21–23) to push manufacturing, tech, and training. Energy & Security: Authorities dismantled an illegal crypto-mining operation in Aragua, citing damage to power protections and instability.

Cuba–U.S. Drone Standoff: Cuba’s leaders are going on the offensive after Axios reported Havana bought 300+ drones from Russia and Iran and discussed possible strikes on U.S. targets, including Guantánamo Bay and even Florida—Diaz-Canel warns any U.S. attack would trigger a “bloodbath,” while Cuba’s foreign minister calls the claims fabricated. Humanitarian Pressure: Amid the escalation, a Mexico-and-Uruguay aid ship docked in Havana with food and hygiene supplies, underscoring how the energy squeeze is now driving daily hardship. Venezuela–Guyana Legal Fight: Venezuela says it will ignore any World Court ruling in the Essequibo border row, arguing court outcomes won’t end the dispute. Venezuela Oil & Policy Moves: Venezuela is also pushing forward on sector rules, circulating draft oil law regulations, while U.S. officials urge “dialogue” on new Venezuela deals. Local Industry & Culture: CNAC advanced a technical table to boost national cinema distribution and exhibition, aiming to strengthen support mechanisms for Venezuelan productions. Markets Watch: Separate from Venezuela, Reuters flags how Hormuz disruption is pushing opaque, non-dollar oil arrangements—raising costs and uncertainty for importers.

Deportation Shock: Venezuela moved fast to deport former minister and Maduro financier Alex Saab to the United States, with Caracas citing his alleged involvement in U.S. crimes—an abrupt reversal after Biden-era clemency and a fresh signal of tighter Caracas-Washington cooperation. Legal Turnaround: Saab’s transfer follows his detention in Caracas and reportedly involved U.S. agencies at the airport handoff, raising the stakes for corruption cases tied to the Maduro era as Maduro himself faces trial in Manhattan. Oil-Trade Pressure: The wider backdrop remains energy geopolitics: opaque oil arrangements around Hormuz and record tanker rates show how disruptions are reshaping flows and pricing—conditions that keep Venezuela’s own oil policy and regulation in the spotlight. Cuba Spillover: The same pressure is intensifying across the region, with reports of Cuba’s drone acquisitions and worsening fuel crisis feeding U.S. security narratives.

Deportation Escalation: Venezuela says it deported Alex Saab—Nicolás Maduro’s longtime “bag man” and former industry minister—to the U.S. to face criminal proceedings, framing it as compliance with immigration law and citing U.S. investigations. Oil-Policy Shock Ripple: The Saab move lands as Venezuela’s wider geopolitical oil leverage remains central to the region’s pressure campaign, while Cuba’s fuel collapse and blackout crisis continues to dominate headlines. Agriculture & Resilience: In Anzoátegui, the governor reports the first phase of foot-and-mouth vaccination—700-plus animals immunized—with a plan to reach about 200,000 head of cattle to protect herd health and food security. Regional Security Noise: Separate reporting claims Cuba has discussed drone strike scenarios, drawing sharp backlash and underscoring how military narratives are being used alongside energy pressure.

Alex Saab Deportation: Venezuela deported Maduro ally Alex Saab to the United States again, citing alleged crimes under U.S. jurisdiction—an abrupt reversal after his 2023 prisoner-swap release and a sign of tighter Caracas–Washington legal cooperation. Oil Law Rollout: Venezuela is circulating draft regulations for its new hydrocarbons law, keeping royalty and tax caps but letting the Ministry set rates project-by-project, with PDVSA’s monopoly on refining/upgrading/trading formally loosened. Diplomacy & Coexistence: The government highlighted progress on its “Program for Peace and Democratic Coexistence” after 100+ days, pointing to hundreds of dialogue hours and steps like support for amnesty and criminal-justice reforms. Regional Energy Pressure: Background remains dominated by the wider U.S. energy squeeze—especially Cuba’s fuel collapse—while Venezuela’s own oil opening and enforcement moves keep drawing outside attention.

Venezuela–Suriname Diplomacy: Delcy Rodríguez met Suriname’s FM Melvin Bouva in Caracas and both sides agreed a road map for fisheries, agriculture, tourism, energy, and maritime/air links, with air connectivity next—reactivating Caracas–Paramaribo and Porlamar–Paramaribo routes. Regional Energy & Security Pressure: The week’s wider backdrop stays tense as the U.S. carrier USS Gerald R. Ford returned to Norfolk after a record deployment tied to crises including Venezuela and Iran, underscoring how overlapping flashpoints stretch readiness. Sanctions-Linked Oil Flows: A separate thread highlights the “Shadow Fleet”—tankers using hidden ownership and disabled tracking to keep sanctioned crude moving, with reports linking routes to Venezuela. What’s Missing: Beyond diplomacy and oil logistics, there’s little fresh Venezuela-only industrial reporting in the latest batch.

Cuba Pressure Campaign: The U.S. is moving toward a formal indictment of Raúl Castro over the 1996 “Brothers to the Rescue” shootdown, with reports saying it could be announced in Miami after grand-jury approval—while Cuban founder José Basulto calls the case “skeptical” and Trump declines to comment. CIA Message Delivery: CIA chief John Ratcliffe’s publicized Havana trip—complete with photos and both sides acknowledging the meeting—signals Washington is pushing “fundamental changes” in exchange for engagement. Iran Brinkmanship: Trump’s coercive diplomacy toward Iran appears to be hitting a wall as negotiations stall, keeping energy-market shock risks alive. Venezuela Energy & Industry: A gas-platform explosion on Lake Maracaibo injured six workers; PDVSA says the fire was extinguished and production won’t be affected. Regional Diplomacy: Venezuela and the World Bank restart technical cooperation talks after a seven-year pause, while Venezuela and Suriname expand minister-level coordination.

Cuba Energy Shock Escalates: CIA chief John Ratcliffe landed in Havana as Cuba admitted it has “absolutely no fuel oil” and “absolutely no diesel,” with blackouts running 20–22 hours and protests flaring—while the CIA posted photos of meetings with Raúl “Raúlito” Castro and top security officials. Regime-Change Pressure: Washington is also reportedly preparing moves against Raúl Castro tied to the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue shootdown, as Trump again floated “taking” Cuba after Iran. Venezuela Industry Watch: In a separate energy-and-industry thread, PDVSA confirmed a gas-facility explosion in Lake Maracaibo that injured six workers, and CVG’s Héctor Silva supervised maintenance at SIDOR’s “Alfredo Maneiro” pellet plant to stabilize furnace performance. Market Signal: Venezuela’s oil output is reported above 1M bpd for the first time in years, even as U.S. control over revenues remains a central constraint.

Cuba Fuel Collapse Escalates: Havana says it has “absolutely no” diesel or fuel oil left, with blackouts hitting up to 22 hours a day and protests spreading as transport and hospitals struggle. US-Cuba Pressure and Talks: CIA Director John Ratcliffe met Cuban security officials in Havana, signaling Washington is ready to discuss economic and security engagement only after “fundamental changes,” while the US also floated $100m in humanitarian aid tied to reforms. Legal Threats Expand: US media report the administration is moving to indict former Cuban leader Raúl Castro over the 1996 Brothers to the Rescue plane shootdown—an escalation that mirrors the pressure campaign that followed Venezuela’s January upheaval. Venezuela Nuclear Security Win: Separately, the US says it completed the removal of highly enriched uranium from Venezuela’s RV-1 research reactor, shipping it for disposition in the US. Diplomacy Meets Markets: As Trump touts alignment with Xi on Iran and trade, the State Department warned diplomats against using insider information for Iran-related wagers on prediction platforms.

Cuba Fuel Collapse: Cuba’s grid suffered a partial collapse and the government says it has “absolutely no fuel” and “absolutely no diesel,” with blackouts hitting up to 20–22 hours a day and protests flaring in Havana. US-Cuba Diplomacy: In parallel, Cuba accepted a U.S. offer of $100 million in humanitarian aid, while the CIA director met Cuban interior officials—moves that underscore how energy shortages are driving fast-track talks. Venezuela Debt Reset: Venezuela’s interim authorities began a formal external debt restructuring, aiming to unwind years of default and PDVSA-linked obligations. ICJ Pressure: The U.S. says it’s closely monitoring Venezuela’s stance in the Essequibo case as Guyana demands investigations into alleged border shootings. Regional Energy Ripples: Britain took part in a nuclear security operation removing highly enriched uranium from Venezuela, while Guyana-Venezuela tensions remain tied to an energy-rich dispute. Markets & Compliance: The U.S. State Department warned diplomats against using insider information for Iran-related prediction bets, after a case involving alleged insider wagering tied to Venezuela.

US Sanctions & ICJ Pressure: Washington says it’s watching Venezuela’s Essequibo stance closely and is pursuing “private conversations” to find room for progress, even as Caracas insists the ICJ outcome won’t change its position. Cuba Fuel Collapse: The latest shock is Cuba’s energy breakdown: the energy minister says the island has “absolutely no” diesel and fuel oil left, with Havana facing 20–22 hour blackouts and protests flaring as hospitals and schools struggle. US Blockade Leverage: The crisis is tied to the US oil blockade and tariff threats that have discouraged fuel shipments from Venezuela and Mexico, leaving Cuba to rely on limited domestic gas and solar that can’t fully stabilize the grid. Prediction-Market Crackdown: Separately, the US State Department warned diplomats against using insider information for Iran-related wagers, after a case tied to bets connected to Maduro’s ouster. Venezuela-US Oil Politics: In the background, US engagement with Venezuela’s oil sector is reshaping regional flows, with reports that Venezuelan crude imports to the US are rising while Nigeria’s share slips.

US–Venezuela Tension Escalates: President Trump posted a map of Venezuela under a US flag labeled “51st State,” renewing pressure after Delcy Rodríguez rejected the idea and vowed to defend sovereignty. Caribbean Diplomacy: Dutch leaders say Venezuela is “more stable” than months ago and that the Kingdom sees no direct threat to the ABC islands, while still flagging unresolved rule-of-law concerns. Energy Shock Watch: The IEA warns the Strait of Hormuz disruption is driving a major oil market shock and could pull global demand into contraction in 2026 as supply losses mount. Aviation & Trade Links: United Airlines announced nonstop Houston–Caracas flights will restart Aug. 11 after nearly a decade, signaling renewed business and travel ties. Local Tech & Power: CANTV secured connectivity for Táchira’s robotics olympics; Guaicaipura police dismantled an illegal crypto-mining operation in Los Teques; and Inter Venezuela partnered with Harmonic for PON-based 5G backhaul. Oil Market Pulse: Brent is trading around $106–$108/bbl as volatility stays elevated.